Recent headlines about the future of coastal Louisiana have been hard to ignore.
Researchers predicting catastrophic sea level rise and raising questions about the long-term viability of communities like New Orleans have reignited an emotional and deeply personal conversation about where our coast is headed.
Those conversations matter because the challenges are real. Louisiana is losing land faster than almost anywhere else in the world. Sea levels are rising. The land is sinking. Communities that generations of families built their lives around are increasingly vulnerable.
But while many of the headlines have focused on worst-case scenarios, the underlying science points to a more important reality: those worst-case scenarios are not certainties.
As researcher Jesse Keenan, a co-author of the recent Tulane University study, told NPR, “Whether we have decades or maybe over a century to go, is, in a way, open to science. … By building land in and around New Orleans, you can buy time, and buying time is the most critical aspect here.”
The decisions we make right now still matter.
For decades, Louisiana’s scientists, engineers, and coastal planners have studied these challenges and worked to develop solutions grounded in science and long-term planning. The state’s Coastal Master Plan was built around that work, using forward-looking modeling to guide billions of dollars in restoration and protection investments while engaging communities across the coast.
Importantly, much of what scientists projected 20 years ago is what we are seeing today. That should not weaken confidence in the underlying science, it should strengthen it.
Coastal Louisiana faces serious risks in the decades ahead, as made clear by the recent Tulane-led study behind many of the headlines. But, as Keenan noted in his NPR interview, the study itself is more nuanced than many of the headlines surrounding it. It recognizes the challenges ahead from climate driven sea levels, while also making clear that the choices we make today in Louisiana can still make a real difference for the future of our coast. In fact, the study reinforces the need for large-scale restoration projects that work with nature to help communities adapt to rising seas and slow the pace of land loss, such as reconnecting the Mississippi River to our wetlands.
Much of the attention has centered on extreme “doomsday” scenarios tied to as much as 23 feet of relative sea level rise, rather than the roughly 2.5 to 5 feet projected in most current planning estimates. The 2023 Coastal Master Plan projected between 1.6 and 2.5 feet of sea level rise by 2100. The Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion Environmental Impact Statement used projections between 2.6 and 4.9 feet, while early projections for the 2029 Coastal Master Plan range from 1.3 to 2.7 feet.
That does not mean the threat is not serious. It means the future is not fixed.
How quickly and how severely the Louisiana coast will change depends heavily on the decisions made today and whether the state continues investing in the projects designed to buy communities more time.
In fact, the study itself says that “targeted coastal restoration remains a viable adaptation strategy” and warns that abandoning large sediment diversions “effectively means giving up on extensive portions of coastal Louisiana, including the New Orleans area.” The report goes even further, describing large sediment diversions as “arguably the last chance to extend the lifetime of select portions” of coastal Louisiana.
That matters because Louisiana already has a science-based plan for responding to these challenges.
The Mississippi River built southern Louisiana over thousands of years, carrying sediment downriver and creating the wetlands and communities that define our coast today. Reconnecting the river to those wetlands remains one of the best tools Louisiana has to build and sustain land for the future. The Mid-Barataria project was designed, fully funded, and already under construction before it was canceled by Gov. Jeff Landry in July 2025.
Louisiana cannot afford to spend another 20 years developing, funding, and building major restoration projects only to walk away from them midway through the process. Stalling and canceling projects like Mid-Barataria makes the worst-case scenarios described in the study more likely.
The governor’s justifications for canceling the project have ranged from concerns about fisheries to hesitation about the overall cost. Now, he is claiming that river diversions are responsible for salt-water intrusion. But many of the claims do not align with the extensive scientific review that have informed Master Plan projects from the start.
The stakes extend far beyond wetlands alone. Coastal decline affects insurance rates, infrastructure investments, local economies, navigation, fisheries, and the future of communities that people are deeply connected to. Headlines about giving up on known solutions will not attract any new businesses or residents.
Families and businesses across coastal Louisiana are already making difficult decisions about whether to stay, adapt, or move somewhere new.
That is exactly why Louisiana needs a stable, science-based coastal strategy rather than a political one. The Tulane study underscores the urgency of restoration projects that work with nature to adapt to rising seas and reduce future risk. “(W)e can shape how quickly and how disruptive the changes to our coast will be through thoughtful planning and speedy project implementation,” the report states.
We need to recommit to the Coastal Master Plan and to continue investing in the projects that are designed to sustain a smaller but more resilient coast. We need to prioritize science-based planning and recognize that land loss is the reason Louisiana created the coastal program in the first place, not a reason to abandon it.
People across coastal Louisiana understand the risks facing this region. We experience the flooding, we see the land loss, and we feel the pinch of the rising costs of living on the coast. But we also understand what is at stake culturally, economically, and personally.
The question is not whether coastal Louisiana will change. It is whether we are willing to follow the science and make the investments necessary to shape that future, extend the life of vulnerable communities, and give future generations more time to adapt.
Giving up on the coast is not a strategy. Fighting for it is.
Steve Cochran, now mostly retired in New Orleans, spent most of his professional life working on public policy, including the last 33 years advocating for progress on clean water, clean air, climate, and coastal restoration and protection. That work included being the first executive director of the Lake Pontchartain Basin Foundation (now Pontchartain Conservancy), and director of Restore the Mississippi River Delta (2015-21).
